User:1Maven/Currency exchange historic data analysis

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This analysis of the Black Lion Menu Bar icon.png Black Lion Trading Company service Black Lion Trading Company currency exchange icon.png Currency exchange includes price fluctuations using historic data from external websites. [1][2]

Disclaimer: While historic data is often used to predict future price fluctuations, there is an inherent risk in doing so.

Definitions[edit]

  • The Exchange rate is determined by supply and demand from players. Since supply and demand affects the rate, the ratio can shift rapidly depending on market conditions. Due to incompatibilities, the three server groups: North American, European and Chinese, maintain separate pools of currency to determine the exchange rate. {{verify}}
  • The Buy More Gems service enables in-game purchase of gems for real-world currencies accepted by ArenaNet. The cost has historically remained constant. Gems may be purchased on North American, European and Chinese servers using the American Dollar ($ or USD), the Euro (€), the British Pound Sterling (£) and the Chinese Yuan (¥ or Renminbi).
  • Daily moving average is the average of exchange rates during a 24-hour period.

Inflation[edit]

Currency Exchange 10-Sep-2012 thru 14-May-2015

The graphs on the right display data specific to the North American servers. The first day of recorded data was September 10, 2012:

  • 100 Gem cost 27 Silver coin 47 Copper coin
  • 100 Gem sold for 19 Silver coin 65 Copper coin

As of May 14, 2015 (about 32 months), the daily moving average:

  • 100 Gem cost 20 Gold coin 66 Silver coin 17 Copper coin to buy, a 8313% increase or roughly 260% per month or 8.66% per day.
  • 100 Gem sold for 11 Gold coin 60 Silver coin 11 Copper coin, a 5905% increase or roughly 184% per month or 6.15% per day.
Currency Exchange 14-Mar-2015 thru 14-May-2015

This is not representative of the recent rate of inflation. For example, the daily moving average during the 2 month period ending 14-May-2015:

  • 100 Gem cost 14 Gold coin 12 Silver coin 34 Copper coin to buy, a 146% increase or roughly 73% per month or 2.43% per day.
  • 100 Gem sold for Gold coin 72 Silver coin 7 Copper coin, a 133% increase or roughly 67% per month or 2.12% per day.
Currency Exchange 01-Dec-2014 thru 28-Feb-2015

There have been periods of deflation. For example, the daily moving average during the 3 month period ending 28-Feb-2015:

  • 100 Gem cost changed from 17 Gold coin 83 Silver coin 70 Copper coin to 13 Gold coin 81 Silver coin 98 Copper coin, a 23%% decrease or roughly 7.51% per month or 0.25% per day.
  • 100 Gem sell changed from 11 Gold coin 71 Silver coin 71 Copper coin to Gold coin 63 Silver coin 81 Copper coin, a 26% decrease or roughly 8.76% per month or 0.37% per day.

Future price fluctuations are dependent on market forces:

  • When the Gem Store adds new offerings.
  • When ArenaNet releases new content.
  • Player population and activity.

Purchasing power[edit]

Due to currency exchange inflation, the value of purchased gems has increased over time. Conversely, the value of in-game gold used to purchase items in the gem store has decreased. For example, to increase your storage, it is now less expensive to create a personal guild vault than to purchasing an equivalent number of new account vault tabs from the gem store.

Speculation[edit]

Even adjusting for losses from the transaction fee, purchasing gems with excess gold, holding those gems for weeks or months, then purchasing gold with gems may result in an increase of in-game gold. It is important to recognize the risk, if there is a significant change in the currency exchange inflation rates then a loss may result.

References[edit]