Talk:Dragon Coffer/drop rate

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I just got a Dragon's Jade Claim Ticket from a normal coffer. That needs to be added to research drop rate. --Moto Saxon 02:14, 12 June 2013 (UTC)

Complaint about percentages[edit]

The following discussion was related to a previous version of the drop rate table now found at Dragon Coffer/drop rate/archive.

The page of Template:SDRF already says it: The percentages are wrong. The drop rate of a given item is COUNT(item) divided by COUNT(coffers). Right now, we calculate COUNT(item)/SUM(COUNT(item_1)..COUNT(item_N)). This current number is heavily skewed in favor of Taffy, since Taffy drops almost always. Does the template offer entering the sum of all opened chests? For posterity I record my chest count: 24 ~ dragon legacy 14:01, 12 June 2013 (UTC)

The template was made assuming 1:1 drops, which doesn't work when you can receive multiple items. We can add a trials parameter to override the calculated value, if someone (Alex) wants to bother adding it.--Relyk ~ talk < 02:08, 13 June 2013 (UTC)
After opening some coffers of my own, I see the problem. Zhaitaffy is a guaranteed drop. There is a chance that you will receive a second item. We need to not record Zhaitaffy at all, and have a "no second item" slot alongside the actual items.
 | labels = yes | size = 50 | title = Dragon Coffer
  | Empty | label1 = No second item 
  | Fireworks
  | Dragonfish Candy
  | Koi Cake
  | Dragonfly Cupcake
  | Dragon's Breath Bun
  | Slice of Candied Dragon Roll
  | Kralkachocolate Bar
  | Charged Potion
  | Cold Potion
  | Hard Potion
  | Warm Potion
  | Dragon's Jade Claim Ticket 
  | Mini Holographic Risen Knight
  | Holographic Dragon Wing Cover

Something like that anyway, I'm not exactly sure how the templates work. And if they don't support an "empty" slot, they need to. —Dr Ishmael User Dr ishmael Diablo the chicken.png 02:57, 13 June 2013 (UTC)
Well, despite the example at the top of people counting the wrong thing, people are still recording receiving 13 taffy at once as 13 when it should be 1 - this isn't helpful.
@ish, Dragon legacy seems to indicate that taffy might not always drop, if that is the case then we'll need to record that somehow.
Unluckily if we decide to adopt your "no second item" (Which seems a good idea + I've done so at [[Rich Dragon Coffer/drop rate]] before thinking about it) then we'll have to start this table again. -Chieftain AlexUser Chieftain Alex sig.png 09:11, 13 June 2013 (UTC)
Ok, changed the table. (hopefully people will notice it has been recoloured and emptied and so might read the top bit :p ) -Chieftain AlexUser Chieftain Alex sig.png 11:18, 13 June 2013 (UTC)

As long as you require people to record every entry, the data is going to be suspect. Very few people will keep track at the number of times they got a single taffy or a single cake. I might keep track for 10 coffers, but I'm not going to do it for 100s. It's much easier for people to record the total amount of stuff they had before and after, then post the difference. That might not get exact percentages, but it will get closer to predicting the average value of the contents. The drop rate for things of value, such as tickets or the minis, will be the same either way. 03:23, 16 June 2013 (UTC)

A bit of Suspicion will always be but I think most People editing Wiki are reading and counting their results carefully. The Icons for the most Potions are taken from the exotic enduring ones. The Icons have changed with any update since Sept (aka Fulgorth)

June 20th entry: 0.8% (8 tickets for 1000 coffers)[edit]

Have they increased the drop rate so much? The rate seemed close to 0.04% just before that entry was made. That's an increase by a factor of 20! --Alad (talk) 02:35, 20 June 2013 (UTC)

Probably false information, or a troll, he only got one miniature, and 8 tickets. Would ignore that until more get posted by others.
Or he has the miniature and tickets inverted. :) --Alad (talk) 10:45, 20 June 2013 (UTC)
Don't worry 500 chests 0 ticket, 0 miniatures, only craps.... as ever :'( — DeoX User DeoX Sign.jpg 20:49, 20 June 2013 (UTC)
I posted this and I can tell it's not fake, I was just really lucky and I can prove it ingame that I have them 10:08, 21 June 2013 (UTC)
Getting "lucky" by a factor of 20 more than the average... I wonder if one can call that "lucky" any more. Admit it, you have inside connections. :) --Alad (talk) 18:46, 21 June 2013 (UTC)
Too bad you didn't enter the lottery. The chances of recieving 8 drops from 1000 coffers at the current estimated drop rate is 0.000000000000000000076%, ie: 1 in 1,330,000,000,000,000,000,000 chance. Gotta love binomial probability. ~Cyn The Red User CynnTheRedSig.png 17:50, 24 June 2013 (UTC)

Entry form[edit]

Could someone set up a page with the entry form? —Kvothe (talk) 19:11, 25 June 2019 (UTC)