User:Jowjowjow/drop-rates

I've done some drop-rate research over the last couple of years, which I ultimately want to publish here.

Amalgamated Gemstones

Starting with four stacks of medallions (uncommon/green) @ 3.25 gold per stack (lowest TP pricing @ 0.0130g each). With recycling all the greens results in 91 rares/yellows and 10 gemstones. Recycling the yellows results in a total of 15 gemstones.

To break even the amount of gemstone drops required is 18.57 at 0.70g per gemstone. Alternatively to break even the pricing of gemstones need to be at least 0.867 gold each, factoring in the 15% tax this would be 0.9967g each.

Profit including recycling (artificially boosted)
	Greens	Yellows	Gemstones	Pricing (g)	Profit (g)
Start	4×250	0	0	4×-1×3.25 = -13	-13
Greens	3	91	10	3×0.0130 + 91×~0.07 + 10×~0.70 = 13.409	0.409
Yellows	3	1	15	3×0.0130 + 1×~0.07 + 15×~0.70 = 10.609	-2.391

Profit including recycling (times counted)
	Greens	Yellows	Gemstones	Pricing (g)	Profit (g)
Start	310×4	0	0	4×-1×310×0.0130 = -16.12	-16.12
Greens	1	67+36	9	1×0.0130 + 103×~0.07 + 9×~0.70 = 13.51	-2.61

Drop-rates including recycling (artificially boosted)
Type	Amount	Yellows (yield - drop-rate)	Gemstones (yield - drop-rate)
Greens	1000	91 (.091 - 36.4%)	10 (.01 - 4%)
Yellows	91	0	5 (0.055 - 22%)
Total	1000	0	15 (0.015 - 6%)

Alternatively: Amalgamated Gemstone/Recipes

Recipes using 1 Pile of Crystalline Dust (output of 1 Amalgamated Gemstone, and rarely 5) - would yield 10+ gemstones for 90 yellows + costs of dust (currently 2.27g for 15 extra crests and 10 dust)

Recipes using 5 Globs of Ectoplasm (output of 10 Amalgamated Gemstones, and rarely 25) - would yield 10+ gemstones for 75 yellows + costs of ecto (currently 1.08g for 5 ectos)

Item	Rarity	Discipline(s)	Rating	Ingredients
Amalgamated Gemstone	FExotic	Mystic Forge	0	1 Pile of Crystalline Dust 3 Crest of the Magi 3 Crest of the Magi 3 Crest of the Magi
Amalgamated Gemstone (x10)	FExotic	Mystic Forge	0	5 Glob of Ectoplasm 25 Crest of the Magi 25 Crest of the Magi 25 Crest of the Magi
Relic of the Monk (Learned from: Recipe: Relic of the Monk)	FExotic	ArmorsmithLeatherworkerTailor	400	48 Pile of Lucent Crystal 15 Crest of the Magi 3 Charm of Brilliance 15 Glob of Ectoplasm

	amount	crits	Gemstones	Pricing (g)	Profit (g)
25 recipe	15×25×3	2	180	-1×15×((25×3×0.07)+(5×.205))=−94.125	(180×0.7)-94.125=31.875
25 recipe (no crits)	15×25×3	0	150	-1×15×((25×3×0.07)+(5×.205))=−94.125	(150×0.7)-94.125=10.875
25 recipe (high,no crits)	15×25×3	0	150	-1×15×((25×3×0.08)+(5×.205))=-105.375	(150×0.7)-105.375=-0.375

Sunken Chests

Sunken Chest drops Swim-Speed Infusion +10 (2-4), some universal upgrade, some gear, some Empyreal Fragments, and a rare chance at the Diver's Breather Box. I parked my 10 characters each at a chest (a little away from said chest, since it needs to load a closed chest, and that somehow won't be the case when you loot and spawn next to it in the next round.) This yielded about 50 chests per hour but could be optimized more (e.g. stealth), with a fully upgraded skimmer. By parking I saved around 2 silver per chest in waypoint costs. The achievement for opening one round of 10 chests is 5 infusions.

Coincidentally the second round has exactly the same drop-rate as the first.

Chests	Infusions	Infusions per chest	Infusions from achievement	Breather boxes	Total infusions	Total infusions per chest
80	242	3.025	8*5=40	0 (very sad, yes)	282	3.525
40	121	3.025	4*5=20	0 (very sad, yes)	141	3.525

Total infusions per chest	Chests per hour	Infusions per hour	Infusion price (min-max)	Potential profit per hour (min-max)
3.525	50	176.25	1750 - 2150	308437 - 378937