Talk:Endless Plush Griffon Tonic
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1/3 chance?[edit]
1/3 chance? I just made fifteen attempts and didn't get the endless tonic. - Brian Kendig 04:12, 21 December 2012 (UTC)
- While I can neither verify nor deny that one has a 33% chance to get the tonic in the Mystic Forge, not getting it after fifteen attempts still doesn't suggest any certain drop rate. You could just be hitting that other 2/3 percentage every fifteen times, which would result in no tonic. There's really no conclusive way to determine drop rate unless the developers tell it to us. MethodicMockingbird 04:32, 21 December 2012 (UTC)
- If it's really a 1:3 chance, then there is a 1-((2/3)^15) chance (99.77%) that you wouldn't get one in 15 tries, i.e. it's very unlikely that you won't see the tonic, but 23 of 10,000 people will have luck that bad. Given how many people might try, we're bound to see some very unlucky people. 75.37.23.222 05:00, 21 December 2012 (UTC)
- More likely, the chance is far less than 1/3. I just wanted to warn other people who, like me, might see this and say "I'm practically bound to get this within five tries or so!" - Brian Kendig 05:16, 21 December 2012 (UTC)
- Yeah I hate the RNG, seems that people like you and me get hit with bad luck eventually - i got my gryphy in 2 tries but expended 8 tries trying to get a soldier tonic :/ A Liability 00:00, 22 December 2012 (UTC)
- I removed it because it states no source or sample size and seemed inconsistent with results reported here and my results (10th, 8th, 37th, 11th and 2nd tries; the odds of not getting one in 36 tries at 1 in 3 odds to get it would be around 1 in 2 million which is enough for me to demand a sample size for the original claim). Etienne 14:05, 25 December 2012 (UTC)
- My forge research seems to indicate about a 15-20% chance for the MF to produce the endless tonic over the single-use one, with anywhere from 1 to 16 attempts required for any one tonic. http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/User_talk:Mnemosyne Then again, I just kept going at it with each frame until I got the tonic, then moved on to the next one. Mnemosyne 19:24, 27 December 2012 (UTC)
- I removed it because it states no source or sample size and seemed inconsistent with results reported here and my results (10th, 8th, 37th, 11th and 2nd tries; the odds of not getting one in 36 tries at 1 in 3 odds to get it would be around 1 in 2 million which is enough for me to demand a sample size for the original claim). Etienne 14:05, 25 December 2012 (UTC)
- Yeah I hate the RNG, seems that people like you and me get hit with bad luck eventually - i got my gryphy in 2 tries but expended 8 tries trying to get a soldier tonic :/ A Liability 00:00, 22 December 2012 (UTC)
- More likely, the chance is far less than 1/3. I just wanted to warn other people who, like me, might see this and say "I'm practically bound to get this within five tries or so!" - Brian Kendig 05:16, 21 December 2012 (UTC)
- If it's really a 1:3 chance, then there is a 1-((2/3)^15) chance (99.77%) that you wouldn't get one in 15 tries, i.e. it's very unlikely that you won't see the tonic, but 23 of 10,000 people will have luck that bad. Given how many people might try, we're bound to see some very unlucky people. 75.37.23.222 05:00, 21 December 2012 (UTC)
So what do you get when it fails?99.48.205.36 02:44, 29 December 2012 (UTC)
Finally got mine after twenty tries. :-) - Brian Kendig 04:06, 30 December 2012 (UTC)
- I've tried well over 30 times. No endless tonic. 75.37.21.191 16:37, 2 June 2013 (UTC)
